Scenarios — decision workspace
Composed from this surface's own capability modules. 10 of 24 inventory capabilities are green under this surface's own tests; the rest are held by published needs and are listed as held rather than mocked.
Start here — which of these is closest to you?
These three are the people this instrument opens on, and what differs between them is shown below. What each would actually end up with is not shown, because computing it needs the simulator capability, which is not published yet — and this surface will not invent it.
- Early career, long horizon — Just started contributing, decades of human capital ahead, almost nothing saved yet.
- Mid career, balance building — Contributing steadily against a balance that has started to matter more than the contributions.
- Near the goal, short horizon — The balance does the work now; a bad decade cannot be contributed out of.
What differs between them, and why each difference matters:
- horizon (years) — how long the decision has to work — the axis time-diversification acts on, and the one that cannot be topped up
- starting balance (currency) — how much of the outcome is already committed to the market rather than still to be earned
- annual contribution (currency per year) — how much of the outcome future earnings can still move
- starting allocation (fraction in [0,1]) — the exposure each starts from today, before anything this instrument shows them
Outcomes for these three are not shown: held by simulator.
Plan
Commit, share, cross
Resilience
How each preset is anchored
- 2008-Style Crisis — stylized from Global financial crisis, 2007–2009: S&P 500 peak-to-trough −56.8% (Oct 2007 → Mar 2009); U.S. unemployment peaked at 10.0% in Oct 2009. Applied as a 50% one-shot drawdown, 20% income reduction and 10% expense increase held for 2 years. Source: BLS, NBER.
- COVID-Style Disruption — stylized from COVID-19 market disruption, 2020: S&P 500 −33.9% (Feb–Mar 2020); U.S. unemployment peaked at 14.8% in Apr 2020. Applied as a 34% one-shot drawdown, 15% income reduction and 5% expense increase held for 1 year. Source: BLS.
- Extended Bear Market — stylized from Dot-com unwind, 2000–2002: S&P 500 −49.1% (Mar 2000 → Oct 2002); NASDAQ −78%; Elevated unemployment for roughly 3 years. Applied as a 45% one-shot drawdown, 10% income reduction and 0% expense increase held for 3 years. Source: BLS, NBER.
Optimize
The order is the argument. A result shown without the naive run it improved on is a number a reader has to take on trust; the same result shown second, against a baseline nobody argues with, is evidence. No control here yet — both runs are held by a published need, and this surface states the sequence rather than inventing a figure to put in it.
- Run it naively The plan under a recognisable default — a constant allocation by preference, a target-date glidepath by choice — with its band, on the draws every later arm is compared against. Held by policy-batches.
- Pin the goal already held Wealth, time and confidence are not independent, so the goal a reader already has is fixed at the confidence they already hold. Nothing is being chosen for them at this step; the point of it is that nothing is. Held by wtc-solver.
- Free wealth or time, holding confidence With confidence held, one of the other two is allowed to move: more wealth for the same date, or the same wealth sooner. Where both improve, the time reading leads — years are a unit nobody has to be taught. Held by policy-batches.
Analysis
State
Workspace not started — this page is static until its module runs.
Capabilities
Status is read from this surface's own test corpus at build time, not written by hand. "Held by" names the published need that is outstanding.
| # | Capability | Status | On this page | Held by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | draft/commit/revert | green | driven here | — |
| 2 | historical lens + inflation bridge | partial | not wired here yet | deck-statistics |
| 3 | life events | green | driven here | — |
| 4 | loan event | green | driven here | — |
| 5 | custom event components | green | driven here | — |
| 6 | glidepath control points | partial | driven here | kit-relay |
| 7 | plan-vs-policy mode | partial | not wired here yet | policy-batches |
| 8 | WTC pick-two-solve-third | partial | not wired here yet | wtc-solver |
| 9 | leverage cap | green | driven here | — |
| 10 | optimize (CMA-ES / tabular-RL) | partial | not wired here yet | policy-batches |
| 11 | resilience across stress presets | partial | driven here | wtc-solver |
| 12 | balance-sheet attribution | partial | not wired here yet | simulator |
| 13 | honest async per section | green | driven here | — |
| 14 | share permalink | green | driven here | — |
| 15 | concentration navigation | green | driven here | — |
| 16 | Roth Ledger surface | partial | served on another surface | front-door-relay |
| 17 | Roth One Question surface | partial | served on another surface | front-door-relay |
| 18 | Roth Hinge surface | partial | served on another surface | front-door-relay |
| 19 | startup equity liquidity A/B surface | partial | served on another surface | front-door-relay |
| 20 | Big-5 onboarding entry | partial | served on another surface | front-door-relay, big5-concepts |
| 21 | a visual driven by real values | partial | served on another surface | kit-relay |
| 22 | one Roth design linked, not three | partial | served on another surface | roth-single-entry |
| 23 | every variant captured | green | served on another surface | — |
| 24 | the generations gallery | green | served on another surface | — |
What this artifact is not
It carries no simulation, no solver and no optimizer: those are consumed capabilities, and the ones this surface needs are not published yet. Nothing here renders a projected number. The component layer is a separate concern's, so the presentation is deliberately plain rather than a stand-in for it.